28 Jul · 21:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AK
🇨🇿Ales Krcil
ELO 1542
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Krcil
TB
🇨🇿Tomas Barsa
ELO 1533
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🌟Barsa covers set handicap as underdog 80% (20)
Fair odds · Krcil
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.