28 Jul · 18:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1522
FormLLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Cerny
MS
🇨🇿Miroslav Sochor
ELO 1469
FormLWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Sochor stays under total as underdog 70% (23)
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H26-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.