28 Jul · 17:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1464
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Mandrysz
FM
🇨🇿Filip Mandrysz
ELO 1540
FormWWLLW
44%
56%
🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Mandrysz
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H25-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (25-22)