28 Jul · 16:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LD
🇨🇿Lukas Dzida
ELO 1546
FormLLWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Osvald
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1549
FormLLWLL
50%
50%
🌟Osvald rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (18)
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~81 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+3
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.