28 Jul · 20:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1647
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1676
FormWLWWW
48%
52%
🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H36-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.