28 Jul · 17:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1469
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jamrich
RJ
🇨🇿Robert Jamrich
ELO 1475
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 70% (44)
Fair odds · Jamrich
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.