29 Jul · 09:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1510
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1503
FormWLWWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (49)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H14-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.