29 Jul · 07:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JS
🇨🇿Jan Skvrna
ELO 1593
FormWWWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Skvrna
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1524
FormLLLLL
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Macurak🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (21)
Fair odds · Skvrna
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+69
H2H5-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-2)