29 Jul · 12:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Benes
ELO 1632
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Prochazka
MP
🇨🇿Michal Prochazka
ELO 1652
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Prochazka
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H8-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.