29 Jul · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FD
🇨🇿Frantisek Dvorak
ELO 1547
FormLLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Osmera
JO
🇨🇿Jan Osmera
ELO 1580
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak
Fair odds · Osmera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H18-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.