29 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1570
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mastera
JJ
🇨🇿Jakub Joksch
ELO 1530
FormWWLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Mastera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H6-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.