29 Jul · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1524
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Pawlik
DP
🇨🇿Dominik Pawlik
ELO 1638
FormLWWWW
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Macurak🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (21)
Fair odds · Pawlik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+114
H2H6-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+114)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)