29 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1537
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Langer
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1510
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jr🌟Jr covers set handicap as underdog 66% (89)
Fair odds · Langer
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H54-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.