29 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sulc
ELO 1503
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Langer
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1537
FormLWWLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sulc🌟Sulc covers set handicap as underdog 67% (90)
Fair odds · Langer
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H25-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.