29 Jul · 15:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
FS
🇨🇿Filip Sikora
ELO 1578
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sikora
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1566
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Gembala🌟Gembala covers set handicap as underdog 73% (26)
Fair odds · Sikora
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+12
H2H5-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.