29 Jul · 17:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1462
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cerny
JC
🇨🇿Jiri Cerny
ELO 1495
FormLLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H20-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.