29 Jul · 18:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MD
🇨🇿Milan Dvorak
ELO 1462
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Hendrych
JH
🇨🇿Jan Hendrych
ELO 1525
FormWLWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Hendrych
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H40-32
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-32)