29 Jul · 20:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1475
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molin
VM
🇨🇿Vojtech Molin
ELO 1481
FormWWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Molin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.