29 Jul · 18:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DV
🇨🇿David Vesecky
ELO 1783
FormWLWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Vesecky
DB
🇨🇿David Bochnak
ELO 1718
FormLLWWW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Bochnak🌟Bochnak covers set handicap as underdog 65% (43)
Fair odds · Vesecky
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H23-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-20)