29 Jul · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FK
🇨🇿Filip Karel
ELO 1651
FormWLWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Karel
MM
🇨🇿Martin Mastera
ELO 1566
FormLLWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Karel
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+85
H2H8-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+85)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-5)