29 Jul · 19:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KZ
🇨🇿Karel Zeman
ELO 1475
FormLWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Zeman
JV
🇨🇿Jiri Vanous
ELO 1412
FormLLWLW
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vanous
Fair odds · Zeman
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H16-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-11)