29 Jul · 17:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1566
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Gembala
JR
🇨🇿Jonas Rak
ELO 1522
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (50)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+44
H2H1-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.