29 Jul · 21:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1482
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
LJ
🇨🇿Lukas Krupnik Jr
ELO 1500
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 28% · 3.62· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.