30 Jul · 09:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FM
🇨🇿Filip Marat
ELO 1372
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Chlumsky
PC
🇨🇿Petr Chlumsky
ELO 1439
FormWWLLL
45%
55%
🌟Marat goes over total as underdog 65% (63)
Fair odds · Chlumsky
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H14-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-6)