30 Jul · 15:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MF
🇨🇿Martin Filipek
ELO 1464
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1529
FormWWWWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Filipek🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 81% (43)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+65
H2H36-37
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+65)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)