30 Jul · 09:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LL
🇨🇿Laurent Lasota
ELO 1509
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Molin
TM
🇨🇿Tomas Molin
ELO 1526
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lasota🌟Lasota covers set handicap as underdog 75% (16)
Fair odds · Molin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.