30 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PM
🇨🇿Petr Moravec
ELO 1516
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1529
FormWWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 81% (43)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.