30 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1588
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Galus
SR
🇨🇿Szymon Radlo
ELO 1552
FormWWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~81 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+36
H2H21-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.