30 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DD
🇨🇿Dariusz Drozdz
ELO 1628
FormLWLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
DS
🇨🇿Dawid Stapor
ELO 1648
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 40% · 2.49· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H19-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.