30 Jul · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TF
🇨🇿Tomas Fojtik
ELO 1539
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1571
FormWLWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Fojtik🌟Fojtik covers set handicap as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.