30 Jul · 21:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1550
FormWWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Krupnik
JK
🇨🇿Jan Krupnik
ELO 1571
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Macurak🌟Macurak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (25)
Fair odds · Krupnik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+21
H2H8-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.