30 Jul · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ZD
🇨🇿Zdenek Dusek
ELO 1459
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Jr
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1466
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dusek🌟Dusek goes over total as underdog 68% (59)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H32-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.