30 Jul · 22:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZD
🇨🇿Zdenek Dusek
ELO 1459
FormWLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Zajicek
MZ
🇨🇿Martin Zajicek
ELO 1490
FormLWLWL
47%
53%
🌟Dusek goes over total as underdog 68% (59)
Fair odds · Zajicek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+31
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.