30 Jul · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JH
🇨🇿Jakub Horky
ELO 1427
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Horky
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1373
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🌟Chmelicek rarely covers set handicap as underdog 29% (14)
Fair odds · Horky
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H7-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.