30 Jul · 22:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MZ
🇨🇿Marek Zaskodny
ELO 1530
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gembala
JG
🇨🇿Jan Gembala
ELO 1546
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zaskodny🌟Gembala rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (50)
Fair odds · Gembala
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H8-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.