30 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Mikolasik
ELO 1539
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Moravec
MM
🇨🇿Michal Moravec
ELO 1557
FormLWLWL
48%
52%
🌟Moravec stays under total as favourite 67% (21)
Fair odds · Moravec
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.