31 Jul · 11:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1520
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jancak
MS
🇨🇿Martin Sobota
ELO 1466
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sobota🌟Jancak goes over total as favourite 67% (43)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+54
H2H6-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.