31 Jul · 13:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RJ
🇨🇿Richard Jancak
ELO 1520
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jancak
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1470
FormWLWLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sturma🌟Sturma covers set handicap as underdog 69% (42)
Fair odds · Jancak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H10-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.