31 Jul · 10:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MT
🇨🇿Milan Tlusty
ELO 1501
FormWLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Kral
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1503
FormWWLLW
50%
50%
🌟Kral goes over total as favourite 81% (43)
Fair odds · Kral
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+2
H2H25-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.