31 Jul · 09:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1481
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
JW
🇨🇿Jakub Walek
ELO 1470
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.