31 Jul · 12:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1471
FormWLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
JW
🇨🇿Jakub Walek
ELO 1444
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Sturma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 34% (44)
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.96· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.