31 Jul · 12:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1586
FormLWWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Lysakowski
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1499
FormLLWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~81 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H52-35
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (52-35)