1 Aug · 13:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IJ
🇨🇿Ivan Jemelka
ELO 1468
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strelec
AS
🇨🇿Adam Strelec
ELO 1482
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Jemelka
Fair odds · Strelec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+14
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.