1 Aug · 13:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JL
🇨🇿Jan Lovl
ELO 1524
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fitl
RF
🇨🇿Radek Fitl
ELO 1532
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Fitl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.