1 Aug · 09:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RN
🇨🇿Rostislav Niezgoda
ELO 1661
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sarganek
DS
🇨🇿David Sarganek
ELO 1693
FormWWWLW
47%
53%
🌟Niezgoda covers set handicap as underdog 68% (19)
Fair odds · Sarganek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H37-44
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.