1 Aug · 21:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1576
FormWLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dohnal
BB
🇨🇿Bohuslav Budik
ELO 1468
FormWLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Budik🌟Budik covers set handicap as underdog 80% (74)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+108
H2H32-28
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+108)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-28)