2 Aug · 17:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1563
FormWWLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Dohnal
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1465
FormLLLLW
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Dohnal rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (111)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+98
H2H12-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+98)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-3)