2 Aug · 16:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JD
🇨🇿Jaroslav Dohnal
ELO 1563
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Dohnal
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1487
FormWLWLW
56%
44%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dvorak🌟Dvorak covers set handicap as underdog 71% (48)
Fair odds · Dohnal
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+76
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+76)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)