2 Aug · 18:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AK
🇨🇿Adam Kral
ELO 1465
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Dvorak
JD
🇨🇿Jakub Dvorak
ELO 1487
FormWLWLW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kral🌟Dvorak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (34)
Fair odds · Dvorak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H30-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.