3 Aug · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇨🇿Ales Langer
ELO 1489
FormLWLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jr
VJ
🇨🇿Vaclav Hejda Jr
ELO 1540
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Langer🌟Jr rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (52)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H50-55
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.